Holiday Spending Statistics 2026: How Much Americans Spend on Christmas

The headline numbers for 2026

Two forecasts frame the season. NRF's covers all core retail, in stores and online. Adobe's covers online sales only. They measure different things, so they should not be added together or compared line by line.

NRF defines the season as November 1 through December 31 and leaves out automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants. Its forecast is built from an economic model based on consumer spending, disposable income, employment, wages, inflation and past retail sales, not from a survey of shoppers.

What shoppers told NRF about their plans

NRF's October survey, run by Prosper Insights & Analytics, asked 8,094 adults between October 1 and 7. The margin of error is plus or minus 1.1 percentage points. It reports plans and attitudes rather than dollar amounts.

• 91% of U.S. adults plan to celebrate winter holidays.
• 56% of holiday shoppers say the economy will affect their spending plans.
• Of those, 43% will shop for sales more often, 31% will comparison shop online more often and 29% will use coupons more often.
• 43% plan to start shopping before November, up from 42% last year. Half of early starters say it is to spread out their budgets.
• 64% are likely to do most of their shopping over Thanksgiving weekend, compared with 63% last year.

The pattern is a budget-conscious shopper who plans around sales. If you want to spread costs the way early starters do, our gifts under $50 guide is a quick way to build a list at a price you choose, and low-cost picks start with gifts under $25.

Where people shop and what they want

Shoppers spread their plans across several kinds of stores, and online comes first, ahead of grocery and discount stores. NRF's survey asked where people expect to shop for the holidays and what they hope to receive.

The same survey asked what people hope to receive. Gift cards lead at 47%, followed by clothing at 44%, books and other media at 25% and personal care or beauty items at 24%.

That is useful if you are stuck. Books are a safe category for readers, and our gifts for book lovers guide has ideas at several budgets. For gift cards, see our article on creative ways to give money, which covers how to make one feel personal.

Cyber Week, discounts and AI shopping assistants

Adobe expects Cyber Week, from Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday, to bring in $47.5 billion online, or 17.3% of the full season. Its day-by-day forecast puts Thanksgiving Day (November 26) at $6.9 billion, Black Friday (November 27) at $12.9 billion and Cyber Monday (November 30) at $15.1 billion.

Adobe also forecasts deepest discounts of up to 30% off list price during Cyber Week, compared with up to 21% just before Thanksgiving and 10% to 15% in December. By category, it expects peak discounts of about 30% for electronics, 29% for toys and 23% for apparel.

AI assistants are changing how people find gifts

Adobe projects traffic to U.S. retail sites from generative AI tools to grow 130% year over year this season. The forecast growth is 159% on Thanksgiving, 95% on Black Friday and 88% on Cyber Monday. Adobe measures visits sent by AI tools, not purchases made through them.

What it means for your own budget

Aggregate forecasts describe a whole economy, not your household. A trillion-dollar season does not tell you what to spend. We suggest setting a total first, then dividing it across the people on your list.

1. List everyone you buy for and put a dollar amount beside each name before you shop.
2. Add a small buffer for wrapping, shipping and last-minute extras.
3. Shop sales for bigger items, but skip a deal on anything that is not already on your list.
4. Track spending as you go, so the total on December 20 is not a surprise.
5. If the total feels too high, trim the list or switch to low-cost ideas instead of going into debt.

Our Christmas gift guide sorts ideas by recipient and price, which makes it easier to match a gift to the amount you set.